My initial iPhone article highlighted why the iPhone will not be a success in its first incarnation. Make no mistake though, the introduction of the iPhone will revolutionize the mobile telephony market. Let’s answer some of the criticisms of the most innovative mobile handset in the history of mobile telephony:Drawback #1: The lack of a keyboard with real keys is a drawbackAnswer: There is no reason why somebody couldn’t design a very sleek bluetooth keyboard is there?Drawback #2: The AT&T Edge network is slowAnswer: People use mobile phones a surprising amount in their own home and the prevalence of free WiFi will continue to grow (including city networks). Not only that, but I’m sure AT&T will look to build a faster network, or partner with a WiMax network at some point (or at least offer it as an option).Drawback #3: You can’t assign a song as a ringtoneAnswer: Just wait, … Continue reading →

I was speaking with a friend of mine recently and he brought up an interesting point. He asserted that there was a widening gap in home prices between where people want to live and where people have to live. How else can you explain the housing price fall in most of the country while places like Seattle continue to have rising prices?Let’s examine this for a moment. How could home prices be increasing in Seattle while falling elsewhere? The first answer is that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” You may have heard this quote before, but in this case it comes down to home price trends being based on median sale price comparisons. The subprime mortgage fiasco, rising interest rates, and tightening credit policies are for the most part pinching off the demand at the low end of the market. Fewer people are now seeking or in fact … Continue reading →

This past holiday season I saw probably one too many articles trumpeting the value of gift cards to retailers and how they are a great thing for retailers. My skeptic side starts coming out as I see article after article appear, and I have to start asking “Is the increasing prevalence of gift cards as a holiday gift (primarily Christmas) a good thing for retailers?”First, let’s look at timing:Gift cards are primarily purchased before Christmas in lieu of a more than likely full-priced gift. The gift card is then held by the purchaser for a week to a month before given to the recipient on Christmas (or slightly before). This means that the recipient cannot possibly purchase something before Christmas when average discount levels are much lower and instead will likely redeem the gift card immediately after Christmas (or within a couple of weeks) when the discount levels are much … Continue reading →

The new Apple iPhone is set to launch on June 29, 2007 and the press and investors are making it a darling. Investors have run Apple’s stock price up from about $85 per share before its announcement to $125 per share recently, but the iPhone still will not succeed – at least not yet.The problem with all this media hype is that it ignores the simple fact that the iPod was not a success. I mean, it was eventually, but it was far from a success out of the gate. “Blasphemy” you might say, “everyone has an iPod” you might say, but the fact is that the iPod was not successful until about the third generation. The iPod was not a success until its killer application was available to the masses. The iPod was not a success until the Windows version of iTunes came out. Then and only then, did … Continue reading →